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Our results and further applications of the model could be used in collaborative settings to facilitate discussion and development of policies and practices for fire-prone landscapes.
), and provide timber to support local communities and forest management infrastructure.
For example, if forests grow into new successional stages or are burned by fire, the type and probability of management changes according to empirically developed rules (Appendix 4).
Some of the human actors (family forest owners and homeowners) respond to the experience of nearby wildfire by changing their likelihood of conducting certain activities such as thinning and reducing fire hazard at homesites (Olsen 2017; Kline, White, Fischer, et al. The actions of federal, tribal, and private corporate landowners are based on targets of timber volume produced or area treated, and preferences for certain vegetation types and landscape positions (e.g., distance to roads).
Deterministic successional transitions occur when a vegetation state reaches its maximum age.
Each vegetation state also has the potential for one of several probabilistic transitions at each time step to introduce alternative successional pathways (e.g., understory development).
Landowners’ management objectives include wilderness experiences, producing timber, and maintaining residential homesteads (Spies et al. The WUI occupies a relatively small area (9.7%) within the larger region, but receives substantial attention from policy makers and forest managers.
Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. 2014) because we did not possess the information needed to model these processes spatially. Moreover, fire-insect interactions are rare in this region (Meigs et al. We defined the landscape and vegetation structure of IDUs by the spatial extent of major vegetation classes (averaged over 4 ha), county tax-lot boundaries, and development zone boundaries identified from local land-use planning maps. Some probabilistic transitions must also meet a minimum threshold for time since previous transition or disturbance. For disturbances from fire and forest management, we did not use the probabilistic transitions built into the existing state-and-transition models.